Global equities have fallen 10% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, but history suggests geopolitical sell-offs are usually temporary unless energy disruptions persist. In this environment, diversification and disciplined risk management remain essential.
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Global equities and global tech were up more than 5% YTD, led by Asia and Europe, while U.S. stocks declined. U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran are triggering a risk-off move at the start of March, likely to persist while military operations continue. Safe-haven assets, including gold, government bonds, and the USD, are expected to benefit from increased flows.
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February opens with the same themes that shaped markets at the start of the year: sharp volatility in metals, resilient equities, and renewed debate around the U.S. dollar. A late-January pullback in precious metals highlighted how quickly crowded positioning can unwind. Meanwhile, global equity markets finished January higher.
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Unprecedented investments in tech, AI, resources, and defense, supported by easier central bank policies, pro-growth measures, and accelerating AI monetization, should drive returns and sustain positive global market momentum.
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From 2026, gradual U.S. fiscal stimulus and corporate adaptation to policy uncertainty should help reduce the risk of a U.S. consumption slowdown. Global trade excluding the U.S. stays relatively strong, while disinflation outside the U.S. supports real incomes and underpins consumer demand, with growth remaining positive in all major economic regions.
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The U.S. labor market remains weak in hiring but stable in job security, supporting consumer spending despite slower wage growth. The Fed continues cutting rates toward a neutral stance, reflecting domestic policy priorities. Globally, outside of the U.S., disinflation prevails and central banks are maintaining low rates, viewing current policies as neutral and effective, supporting the global outlook.
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